Markets took a decisive turn this week after the Fed made one thing clear: rate cuts are not coming anytime soon. As expectations for easing collapsed, risk assets reacted sharply, with equities selling off, yields pushing higher, and gold seeing its steepest weekly decline in years.

This week’s report breaks down this major macro shift with 14 detailed charts covering the repricing in rate expectations, the surge in short-term yields, and the knock-on effects across global markets. The crypto section dives into Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana, outlining precise long and short setups with defined entry points, targets, and invalidation levels as markets adjust to a higher-for-longer environment.

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The Fed held rates steady this week and, more importantly, signaled it has no urgency to cut. Markets got the message fast: rate swaps, which had been pricing in two cuts for most of the year, collapsed to near zero, meaning traders are now betting the Fed stays on hold through December. That's a major shift in the macro backdrop, and everything else this week flows directly from it.

Equities bore the brunt. The S&P 500 posted its worst Fed-day performance since December 2024, dropping roughly 1.5% as Powell made clear that inflation remains too sticky to justify easing. It's a stark contrast to most of 2023 and 2024, when Fed days were reliably positive, back then, every meeting brought the market closer to cuts. Now that logic has inverted.

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Past performance isn't predictive; illustrative only. Investing risks principal; no securities offer. See important Disclaimers

The 2-year Treasury yield, the market's most direct read on Fed policy, tells the same story with precision. After trending steadily lower from above 4% all the way down to 3.4% in early March, yields snapped violently higher toward 3.8% once the Iran conflict and fresh inflation data hit simultaneously. That kind of move in the short end means higher borrowing costs for everyone: mortgages, corporate debt, consumer credit, all staying elevated for longer than markets had hoped.

Gold, which had been one of the standout trades of the past year, rallying from $3,000 to over $5,000 on a combination of war-driven safe-haven demand and rate-cut optimism, is now on track for its worst week in six years. As real yields rise and cut bets fade, one of gold's core fundamental supports disappears. The speed of the reversal is a reminder that even the strongest macro trends can unwind quickly when the rate narrative shifts.

The takeaway for crypto investors is direct: Liquidity tightens, risk appetite shrinks, and the speculative premium that drives crypto outperformance gets compressed. With the Fed on hold, equities struggling, and gold cracking, the path of least resistance for crypto is sideways-to-lower until the macro picture clears. Watch the 2-year yield, if it keeps climbing, expect continued pressure on BTC and altcoins alike. A reversal there would be the first real signal that the trade is turning.

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Past performance isn't predictive; illustrative only. Investing risks principal; no securities offer. See important Disclaimers

Bitcoin topped at $76,000 on Tuesday and has trended lower throughout the week, losing both the $74,400 and $72,000 support levels in succession. Price currently sits at $70,400, with the next meaningful support at $65,500.