Markets head into one of the most important expiries in crypto history, with over $14B in Bitcoin options set to settle today. At the same time, geopolitical tensions continue to escalate, oil prices are surging, and equities are sitting on critical support, creating a highly fragile macro backdrop.

This week’s report breaks down these crosscurrents with 14 detailed charts covering options positioning, dollar sentiment shifts, and the impact of rising oil prices on global markets. The crypto section dives into Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana, outlining precise long and short setups with defined entry points, targets, and invalidation levels as markets navigate heightened uncertainty.

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Past performance isn't predictive; illustrative only. Investing risks principal; no securities offer. See important Disclaimers

Today is one of the most significant options expiry days in crypto history, with over $14 billion in Bitcoin contracts settling on Deribit. The chart shows a massive wall of call open interest at the $75,000 strike, the so-called "max pain" level where market makers' hedging flows naturally pull spot prices, and with BTC currently trading near $70,000, how it behaves in the hours after settlement will set the tone for Q2.

That same theme of positioning and sentiment runs through the dollar options market, where a closely-watched spread between short and long-dated risk reversals has just hit its most negative reading in over a decade. In plain terms, traders are paying up to hedge against dollar weakness over a one-year horizon at a scale not seen since 2016.

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Past performance isn't predictive; illustrative only. Investing risks principal; no securities offer. See important Disclaimers

Ceasefire hopes took a direct hit overnight after Iran's Foreign Minister publicly contradicted Trump's claim that negotiations were underway, calling the exchanges through mediators something that "do not constitute negotiations." Brent responded immediately, closing up 5.7% above $108, and the chart makes clear that the market sees no credible resolution on the horizon, oil remains in deep backwardation, meaning futures traders still expect prices to stay elevated well into the second half of the year.

Against that backdrop, the S&P 500 is clinging to a level that technical analysts consider critical: the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the entire 2022–2025 bull run, which held as a floor during last April's selloff and now serves as the market's line in the sand. A sustained break below it would signal the correction has become something more structural.

The throughline across all four charts is the same, a market repricing in real time around a conflict with no clear end date. Oil is complicating the rate-cut path, the dollar is losing its safe-haven premium, equities are sitting on technical support, and crypto is heading into a landmark expiry. The next 48 hours will matter.

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Past performance isn't predictive; illustrative only. Investing risks principal; no securities offer. See important Disclaimers

Bitcoin topped just shy of $72,000 twice this week before facing rejection on Wednesday and trending lower since, now closing in on the next technical support level at $65,500. Price currently sits at $67,700, having lost over 5% in the past two days.